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What lenses will Canon release next year?

Before I begin speculating, let me first state very clearly that I have absolutely no inside knowledge of what Canon will release next year.  These are just educated guesses.  However, it can be fun to guess.

To be honest, recent lens releases by Canon have been extremely dull.  I was completely underwhelmed with the recently announced 24mm 1.4 II as I really have absolutely no use for a lens like that.  My suspicions are that this trend will continue for next year.

There are two main reasons why I think Canon will not release many new lenses next year.

1. Canon doesn’t really need to do this.  Canon already has a good lead over Nikon in terms of lens variety and Nikon has been releasing lenses at a slow pace itself.  With cameras, I have noticed that Canon seemed to prefer to let Nikon catch up to them before releasing anything new.  To a lesser degree, that may be the same case with lenses.
2. We are in an economic downturn.  Most companies I know of have cut features from their products and reduced the number of products in development.  Canon (and Nikon) are no different here.  If Canon releases more lenses next year than it did this year, the only reason will be that these lenses were already very mature in development.

That being said, the following are my opinions on upcoming lenses.  Rather than state what I think will be released compared to what will not, I will rank them from one to ten with one meaning the chances are very low to ten being an almost certainty.

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My thoughts on what Canon will come out with this year

OK, first the obvious disclaimer that, as I do not work for or with Canon, I have absolutely no idea what they are working on. However, it is still fun to speculate. So, here’s what I suspect Canon will come out with this year.

A digital rebel replacement – This one seems rather obvious, but I really have no idea what the specs will be. I don’t really follow the rebel product lines.

The Canon 5d Mark II – Several pieces of software have released with a mysterious camera called the “Canon 5d Mark II”. This makes sense, as all of the other cameras in the Canon SLR line have already been upgraded. So, what do I think it will have? Well, let’s first state the obvious.

1. Dust removal
2. 3.0 inch LCD
3. 14 bit A/D converter
4. Digic III image processor
5. ISO sensitivity in viewfinder
6. Improved user interface similar to 1D series
7. Improved shutter lifetime

These are all obvious because the recently introduced cameras all have them. Now for the speculation part…

• I think there’s a fair chance that Canon may increase the resolution from 12.8 megapixels to around 16 megapixels. However, I’m not sure they need to from a marketing standpoint. The 5d still has a higher resolution than any other Canon camera, with the exception of the 1Ds series, and is higher than the competing Nikon cameras.
• Improved frame rate. The 5d currently has a rather poor 3fps, compared to the 6.5fps of the 40D. I think there’s a very good chance this will increase. My best guess is the 5d Mark II will be at 5fps.
• Weather proofing. This has always been the domain of the 1D series cameras and I seriously doubt Canon will add this to the 5D. Still, the 5D may have improved durability, but will not be entirely weather proof as the 1D series is.
• Improved ISO handling. The 5D is already very good in this area, but I have noticed new SLRs putting this at a higher premium. One need to look only at the Nikon D3X – where high ISO quality was chosen over high megapixels. The fact is more and more professionals prefer to be able to take low noise pictures at ISO 3200 than have more megapixels. I would not be surprised if the 5D Mark III improves here – though if the new model is 16 megapixels the ISO quality will probably be the same.
• Mirror lock button. Oh… one can dream. I suspect there’s some VP at Canon that is very obstinate about this, as everyone has been asking for this for years only to see camera after camera come out without it. It can take the place of the direct print button – which is ridiculous for a professional camera.

OK, now onto the lenses. First, I suspect that a number of EF-S lenses will come out this year. Obviously since they are not supported on my camera I pay little attention to them so I will cover only the EF lenses.

Canon 70-200mm 2.8L IS Mark II – A lot of photographers swear by this lens but the fact is the newer 70-200mm 4.0L IS has better image stabilization and is sharper. I suspect they will update their flagship lens with the newer image stabilization technology while making it sharper. Recent drops in prices in this lens seem to suggest this will happen.

Canon 200mm 2.0 and 800mm 5.6 – Untypical of Canon, these have already been announced.

A new canon wide angle lens – I read some time ago that Canon was spending a good deal of research on wide angle lenses. Shortly after that, the 16-35mm 2.8L II came out. After that I correctly predicted they would release a 14mm 2.8L II, which they did. I suspect these were the two most important wide angles, but I also suspect they are not done yet. Most likely it is a new wide EF-S lens but they may also release a new fisheye.

A bigger zoom telephoto than the 100-400L – Personally I really would like to see Canon come out with something here. Sigma has the 120-300 2.8, the 300-800 5.6, and the “Sherpa not included” 200-500 2.8. Nikon has the 200-400 4.0. Canon doesn’t like to play catch up but it really needs to here. I severely doubt Canon will tackle a 200-500 2.8, nor will it release a 300-800 5.6. It is most likely to release a 200-400 4.0 and a bit less likely to release a 120-300 2.8. We may also see a Mark II version of the 100-400L, but I doubt that Canon would replace two flagship lenses in one year. Despite all of my hopes, I expect that Canon will not release a new zoom telephoto this year.

Canon 24-70 2.8L IS – I suspect someday Canon will release this lens. Perhaps it will be this year but I don’t think the odds are very high.

In terms of lenses I would like to see, but severely doubt Canon will release.

Canon TS-E 105mm Macro – OK, you have to admit that a 1:1 tilt shift lens at about 100mm would be the coolest thing. I put the lens at 105 because Canon would be unlikely to release it at 100mm because it would confuse people looking at the 100mm 2.8. Macro photography is really growing and Canon could profit very well from coming out with interesting lenses like this. Then again, they already have an interesting one in the MP-E 65.

Canon MP-E 150mm Macro 1x-3x – The MP-E 65 is very lonely as the only MP-E lens. After all, there are three TS-E lenses. Increasing the focal length would improve the diffraction issues. Because the focal length is much longer, this new lens would only go to 3x, thus making it slightly lighter (or at least I assume so – I don’t know very much about optics).