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What lenses will Canon release next year?

Before I begin speculating, let me first state very clearly that I have absolutely no inside knowledge of what Canon will release next year.  These are just educated guesses.  However, it can be fun to guess.

To be honest, recent lens releases by Canon have been extremely dull.  I was completely underwhelmed with the recently announced 24mm 1.4 II as I really have absolutely no use for a lens like that.  My suspicions are that this trend will continue for next year.

There are two main reasons why I think Canon will not release many new lenses next year.

1. Canon doesn’t really need to do this.  Canon already has a good lead over Nikon in terms of lens variety and Nikon has been releasing lenses at a slow pace itself.  With cameras, I have noticed that Canon seemed to prefer to let Nikon catch up to them before releasing anything new.  To a lesser degree, that may be the same case with lenses.
2. We are in an economic downturn.  Most companies I know of have cut features from their products and reduced the number of products in development.  Canon (and Nikon) are no different here.  If Canon releases more lenses next year than it did this year, the only reason will be that these lenses were already very mature in development.

That being said, the following are my opinions on upcoming lenses.  Rather than state what I think will be released compared to what will not, I will rank them from one to ten with one meaning the chances are very low to ten being an almost certainty.

Canon 24-70 2.8 IS – Likelihood 6

Recent rumors suggested that this lens was a certainty when the 5D Mark II was released.  They were obviously wrong.  To be honest, I’m not sure it would be a good move for Canon to release this lens.  They already have a 24-70 2.8 and a 24-105 f4 IS that serve completely different purposes.  With a 24-70 2.8 IS, I would expect their 24-105 f4 IS sales to fall as more people will not have a need for both lenses.  I rank this as only slightly likely due to the large number of rumors about it.

Canon 35mm 1.4L II – Likelihood 8

This lens was also rumored to be coming and I suspect it is much more likely.  Canon often releases lenses of similar focal lengths close to each other (see the 14mm 2.8L II and the 16-35mm 2.8L II) so this would be a natural pair for the 24mm 1.4L II.  The other factor that makes it more likely is I also have no use for this lens – which given my luck makes it more likely.

Canon 14-24 2.8 – Likelihood 1

I would certainly be one in the first in line to buy this lens, but it’s not going to happen.  This lens would undercut two other lenses Canon recently introduced – the 16-35mm 2.8L II and the 14mm 2.8L.

Canon 200-400 F4 – Likelihood 3

I would not be surprised if Canon has at least entertained this lens, but I doubt they will release it anytime soon or at all.  I do think that Canon desperately needs a zoom telephoto higher than the 100-400, but I doubt it’s coming anytime soon.

Canon 600mm 4L II – Likelihood 3

In general, Canon already has a lead over Nikon in the telephoto primes department.  Their 600mm lens is already cheaper and just as highly (if not more highly) regarded than the Nikon counterpart.  The only reason I could see Canon releasing this would be to increase the price of their telephotos.  This lens wouldn’t be entirely unrealistic given that Canon has recently introduced a (very expensive) 800mm 5.6 lens.

Canon 100-400 4-5.6L IS – Likelihood 5

The main difference between this lens and the current 100-400 is the F4 starting point – which I believe would allow the lens to use a 1.4x extender and retain AF.  This lens was rumored to be released but like the others did not show up.  The push pull on this lens has been long hated and I have seen comments that this lens is soft – though there are also comments that recently produced lenses are much sharper.  I do think this is the most likely telephoto to see an upgrade – especially more so since I plan to purchase the existing 100-400 soon – but my suspicions are that we will not see this lens next year.

Canon 180mm 3.5L II macro – Likelihood 4

I have seen some rumors that this lens will be updated.  I have the current version of this lens and love it.  I do think that this is the most likely macro lens to receive an update – but I don’t think any macro lenses will be updated soon.  Still, my intuition tells me that an update is coming – though not likely for next year.

Canon 400mm 4L IS II – Likelihood 4

Of all the prime telephotos, I think this may be the most likely to be updated.  Compared to the other primes, it has the lowest reviews.  It is also a good lens for handholding – so some of the technology from the 800mm 5.6 would be helpful.  I don’t think it is a very sexy lens but if it is lightweight it would probably sell decently.

Canon TS-E 24 3.5L II

With the new video feature, the tilt shift lenses will receive new focus.  This is the only tilt shift to have the L designation and does fit well into the recent wide angle focus at Canon.  Therefore, I think this is the most likely tilt shift to be updated.  I have also read a number of reviews that the current version has its issues – meaning that it is more likely to be updated.

Will there be new lenses?

You probably have noticed that most of these lenses are updated to existing ones.  This certainly seems to be the trend at Canon, so I went with it.  While I would love to see an imaginative lens like the MP-E 65, I just don’t think we’ll see it.  Of course, I have been wrong more often than right lately – so take all of this with a grain of salt.

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Tags: 2009, canon, lens, rumor, upcoming